At the "10th National Ceramics People's Conference and 2020 China Ceramics Brand Conference" held on January 11, Miao Bin, president of the China Building and Sanitary Ceramics Association, released the much-anticipated "2020 Ceramic Industry Long March V—— China Ceramic Tile Production Capacity Survey” big data.
▲Miao Bin, President of China Building and Sanitary Ceramics Association
The following is the transcript of the speech:
Tile production dropped by 15% during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”
Here I will give a brief review of the overall situation of our industry in the past five years during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan".
In the past five years, our ceramic tile output has dropped by about 15%, which means the market has shrunk. Export value and export volume have dropped by more than 40%, to nearly 50%.
The per capita labor productivity of ceramic enterprises, according to the data held by our association and this big data survey, should be more than 650,000 yuan/person/year, probably close to 700,000 yuan.
The concentration ratio of the top ten ceramic companies in sales reached 18%, an increase of 3% in the past five years. More than 10 billion companies have been born, and ten new listed companies have been added to the entire industry. Of course, it is not just ceramic tiles, including sanitary ware.
China's ceramic tile production used to account for two-thirds, more than 60%, of the world. After five years, due to our production decline, other countries around the world, especially emerging countries, have risen, and production still accounts for 54%.
More than 500 ceramic production lines have been reduced in three years
According to statistics from the Ceramic Industry Long March, we have reduced the number of ceramic construction companies by 211 in three years. However, according to statistics from the association, nearly 500 companies have withdrawn from this industry in five years.
Production capacity has dropped from 13.6 billion square meters to 12.3 billion square meters, which means that the capacity utilization rate of our entire industry is about 70%.
The existing ceramic production lines have been reduced from more than 3,400 to 2,760, a decrease of 15.45%, and a decrease of more than 500.
The biggest decline was in polished tiles, with a decrease of 330 production lines, a decrease of almost 2/3;
The number of production lines of interior wall tile enterprises decreased by 188, and the production capacity dropped by 19%;
The number of exterior wall tile production lines decreased by 113, and the production capacity dropped by 29.59%.Nearly 30%;
The antique brick production line has also been reduced by 30%.
At present, the number of large slab production lines or rock slab (thin slab) production lines that everyone is paying close attention to has reached 171, an increase of 8 times; the production capacity of ceramic tiles has increased by 30.5%. In other words, the output of ceramic tiles has been greatly reduced.
▲Figure 1
This (Figure 1) is the distribution of ceramic companies currently in production. You can see that Guangdong, Fujian, and Jiangxi are in the top three. It currently includes Sichuan, Shandong, and Henan, which account for a relatively small share. The specific data has been listed in the production capacity report. The number of production lines is basically dominated by the production areas of Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, and Sichuan.
The production capacity of glazed tiles, porcelain tiles and antique tiles ranks among the top three
▲Picture 2
In the distribution of (ceramic tile) production capacity (Figure 2), Guangdong still ranks first, accounting for about a quarter of the country, Jiangxi accounts for about one-fifth, and Fujian accounts for about seven percent one.
▲Figure 3
This (Figure 3) is the distribution of daily production capacity. According to our survey data, the daily production capacity of ceramic tiles has decreased by 4.22 million square meters.
▲Figure 4
Distribution of various main products (Figure 4), it can be seen that glazed tiles now account for the largest proportion, 27.5%; porcelain tiles and antique tiles also account for a relatively large proportion.
Of course, the large, thin, and rock slabs that everyone is paying close attention to currently do not account for a large amount, about 5%. Nowadays, everyone is paying close attention to the discussion about the future of the board.What kind of development prospects are there, but currently its proportion in the output of the entire building ceramics industry is only about 5%.
▲Figure 5
Now the proportion of various types of ceramic tile production lines (Figure 5) is relatively similar to our production capacity. It can still be seen that the three major categories of products, namely glazed tiles, porcelain tiles, and antique tiles, are still the mainstream in our market. products.
The production area with the highest production capacity of various types of ceramic tiles.
The big board that everyone is most concerned about now, from the survey data, Guangdong accounts for the largest amount, with a daily production capacity of 848,500 square meters, followed by our Jiangxi production area. During this period, the Gao'an production area has risen again There are many large board production lines, followed by Sichuan, the three main production areas. This is the production line (situation) of large boards that may be of great concern to everyone in the future.
Guangdong is still far ahead in terms of production capacity of glazed tiles, followed by Jiangxi in second place, followed by Shandong and other production areas.
Polished tiles should have been the star product five years ago. Over the past few years, the demand for polished tiles has rapidly given way to other products. Therefore, although Guangdong still maintains a large number, it can be seen that other products The area occupied by polished tiles is already running out.
Except for Guangdong, Fujian ranks second for antique bricks. This means that after many companies in Fujian have made adjustments in the past few years, the output of antique bricks has increased.
Porcelain tiles are relatively balanced. Each production area has a certain amount of porcelain tiles. This is related to our market demand. Each company allocates a considerable amount of porcelain tiles according to the market and production area. production line.
Exterior wall tiles are still dominated by Fujian enterprises. Although they have made many adjustments, Fujian is still far ahead in the field of exterior wall tiles, accounting for a very large amount.
Roofing tiles have become the most popular market in recent years, especially in the rural market (with relatively high growth), including in 2020 despite the impact of the epidemic., our company that makes roof tiles is relatively good. In the past five years, it has been a rare variety for us to continue to grow. Therefore, it can be seen that in the production areas of Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Anhui, roof tiles account for the largest share. It is relatively large and continues to grow.
Per capita labor productivity needs to be improved
▲Figure 6
This table (Figure 6) is not of much concern to us, but in the past, from the "13th Five-Year Plan" to the "14th Five-Year Plan", we used output, output value and employees as very important indicators for evaluating enterprises. This indicator indicates whether your company's products, your company management, your brand's added value, and even your product structure are competitive.
It can be seen that in our entire (statistics of practitioners), Guangdong is still in the lead because it is the production area with the largest production capacity and the most production lines, so it has the most practitioners. The following are Jiangxi and Fujian.
▲Figure 7
What we are very concerned about is that the number of employees in each production line represents the product structure of our production line.
It can be seen from here (Figure 7) that Hebei has the largest number of single informants. Relatively speaking, the production and labor efficiency of this production area is relatively low. As for the following ones, Fujian, of course its product structure is related; in addition to product structure, Sichuan has undergone many large-scale transformations in recent years.
From the perspective of single-line employees, the fewer the better, so for many companies, the competitiveness of their new production lines and old production lines can be seen from the average number of people employed in each production line.
▲Figure 8
This (Figure 8) is implemented for each employee (per capita production capacity). As we all know, the Guangxi production area is a new production area in recent years, so relatively speaking, its production capacity per employee is the highest.
The following is Fujian, which I just mentioned is related to its product structure.
From here we pay attention to the Guangdong production area. Its production capacity per employee is not very high. This is also consistent with the results of our survey. Although the Guangdong production area has always been ahead of the country in the past, The differentiation of this enterprise is very large. Some enterprises are very good, but the labor production of some enterprises is not as good as that of Jiangxi and Sichuan production areas.
More than half of natural gas usage
▲Figure 9
This (Figure 9) is about the usage rate of natural gas. Of course, this data was made last year (2020). I think there may be some changes in this data so far.
Here, we can feel that local governments have relatively high requirements for the use of natural gas. However, considering that some production areas are advancing, they have not yet been fully implemented, including high-security production areas. Centralized gas supply has just begun, so judging from this table, the current usage of natural gas is only more than half. We estimate that this figure will reach more than 60% by the end of 2021, and some are being promoted but have not yet been implemented.
▲Table 10: Natural gas usage rate in major producing areas
This (Table 10) is based on the survey. The proportion of natural gas used in different production areas is currently relatively high, such as Shandong production areas, Sichuan production areas, and Fujian production areas. They are all ahead. 90%. The Guangdong production area has been relatively intensive in the past two years. I think according to the government's requirements, it may exceed 90% by the end of this year (2021). There are relatively few in other areas, especially the Guangxi production area, which has just started to develop, so the requirements in this area are not very high. This is a survey of our energy usage.
The output of architectural ceramics in 2020 may remain the same year-on-year
I will give you a preliminary introduction to this year's (2020) data, because the full-year data has not been released.
According to the data of the first eleven months that our association has, the output of architectural ceramics this year (2020) should be similar to last year (2019), or even slightly higher. The data of the first eleven months, More than 7 billion square meters, a slight increase.
In terms of sales and profit, we estimate it will be flat or slightly better. The problem that arises is that our accounts receivable are lower than last year (20Compared with 2019), because many of my companies do engineering, there has been more growth.
The export of ceramic tiles was 555 million square meters, a decrease of 21%; the export volume was US$3.64 billion, a decrease of 12.18%. It continued to follow the trend of contraction, especially due to this year's epidemic, ceramic tile exports were still affected to some extent.
(The article is reproduced from Ceramic Information)
