On the one hand, the ceramic industry has a high degree of overcapacity and a serious backlog of inventory. On the other hand, what has been ignored is the "expansion of ceramic tile production capacity." And the scale and speed of this round of capacity expansion are amazing, perhaps even after 2011. , a new upsurge in national production capacity expansion in the past 10 years.
In 2021, the "big expansion of production capacity" in the ceramic tile industry is mainly reflected in four aspects:
Under the pressure of high costs and energy consumption reduction, a large number of ceramic enterprises across the country have "removed old kilns and built new ones" and "replaced small ones with large ones";
The violent expansion of leading ceramic companies, investment intensity and line construction speed have reached new highs in recent years;
A large number of "zombie ceramics companies" that have closed down and been suspended for many years have been revitalized;
The West Tile industry is in dire straits, and a large number of West Tile production lines have been converted to produce ceramic tiles.
In this round of capacity expansion, the answer given by many ceramic companies is to "reduce costs and improve competitiveness." However, the increasing overcapacity has made people worry about the vicious competition in the future of the industry and the hidden dangers behind the cause and effect. worry.
Since 2021, the national ceramic tile production capacity has further expanded, and the momentum is very rapid.
According to incomplete statistics from "Ceramic Information", in Jiangxi's Pan-Gao'an (Gao'an, Yifeng, Shanggao) production areas, there were more than 20 newly expanded production lines in the first half of the year, and almost all of these new lines have a daily production capacity of 30,000 square meters With large lines of more than 1 meter, coupled with the revitalization of "zombie companies" and the increased production capacity of companies "from small lines to large lines", the daily production capacity of pan-high-security ceramic tiles has increased by nearly 900,000 square meters year-on-year.
This is an astonishing set of data. Based on a 310-day production cycle, in a short period of time, the annual production capacity of ceramic tiles in the Pan-Gaoan production area has increased by nearly 300 million square meters.
Guangxi, another emerging production area, has also seen a number of ceramic companies that have been closed down for many years being revitalized. In addition, new lines of many ceramic companies such as Mona Lisa and Oceano in Teng County have been launched one after another. Conservative calculations , Guangxi’s new annual production capacity will also exceed 100 million square meters in 2021.
In the six provinces of Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, since the second half of last year, about 20 ceramic companies have increased their production capacity by 30%-50% based on the original production lines—— A batch of production lines with a daily production capacity of more than 20,000 square meters have been expanded to 40,000 to 50,000 square meters, making the ceramic tile total in the above six provinces and regionsThe overall production capacity is increased by 7%-8%.
According to survey data from the 2020 "Ceramic Industry Long March" - China Ceramic Ceramic Production Capacity Report, the total annual ceramic tile production capacity of the six provinces and regions of Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi reached 2 billion square meters, and the overall production capacity increased by 7%-8 %, which is equivalent to an increase in annual production capacity of approximately 150 million square meters on the original basis.
Among the above-mentioned new production capacities, the production capacity of medium plate alone has increased by 100 million m2/year, and it has been confirmed by various parties in "Ceramic Information" that the production line with the largest single-line production capacity in the north has now reached 70,000 m2/day, "1 One line tops 5 lines."
The "phenomenon of increasing single-line production capacity, reducing unit costs, and improving competitiveness" is also widely seen in many production areas such as Shandong, Hunan, Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan, etc., with a large number of large kilns with daily production capacities of 30,000 square meters and 50,000 square meters. , Super kilns are popping up all over the country, with one line surpassing 3 to 4 lines.
In addition, there are also leading ceramic companies such as Dongpeng, Mona Lisa, Oceano, Weimei, Nobel, New Pearl, Smick, Hongyu, and Jianyi who are "crazy" to compete for land this year. reach climax. Since the beginning of the new year, news of the expansion of leading ceramic companies has spread almost every month, and the amount of investment has continued to break records, often ranging from billions to tens of billions of yuan.
The above signs indicate that the ceramic industry will once again set off a wave of violent production capacity expansion in 2021. In this round of expansion, there may not be many new production lines, but the new single-line production capacity is larger, and the single-line production capacity of a large number of ceramic tiles has been expanded on the original basis.
From the perspective of energy conservation, emission reduction, and industrial upgrading, these large-capacity new lines are generally highly intelligent and have outstanding energy conservation and consumption reduction benefits, which is the general trend of development.
However, this round of expansion is very worrying - in the past, the ceramic industry expanded because production capacity exceeded demand. However, in this round of production capacity expansion, many ceramic companies have been "overturned by high costs" in the context of severe overcapacity. force". In the next few years, the problem of overcapacity will undoubtedly become more prominent, and vicious competition in the ceramic tile industry will also intensify.
During the "Long March of the Ceramic Industry" in 2020, "Ceramic Information" also discovered that "the price war and the reduction in the unit price of ceramic tiles have been ignored by the industry."
In many ceramic production areas, the price of ceramic interlocking tiles has dropped to less than 8 yuan/square meter. The unit prices of many categories such as polished tiles, glazed tiles, porcelain tiles, mid-boards, exterior wall tiles, and antique tiles have dropped in the past three years. Nearly 30%.
AndThe root cause of the "price war" lies in severe overcapacity, high homogeneity of products and intensifying vicious competition.
If the reason for the expansion of leading ceramic companies is "insufficient supply of production capacity", then for many ceramic companies in production areas, the logic of increasing "single line production capacity" is more to "reduce unit production costs."
As can be seen from the above figure, compared with three years ago, the provinces where the national average single-line production capacity increased were basically provinces and production areas that switched from coal to gas. Cost pressure is an important driving force for ceramic companies to increase production line capacity and reduce production costs.
Coal-fired production areas such as Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Shanxi, and Henan have faced relatively little pressure from rising costs in the past three years, and their willingness to expand single-line production capacity is not strong.
However, with the completion of "centralized gas supply" in Jiangxi Gao'an in 2021 and the skyrocketing prices of coal and natural gas, a wave of "equipment upgrades and small lines to large lines" has been set off across the country.
In addition, the comprehensive production costs of ceramic companies will soar by more than 20% in 2021, but it is difficult for ceramic tile sales prices to rise simultaneously. Although since the beginning of the new year, the ceramic industry has ushered in "the most violent ceramic tile price increase in history" - hundreds of ceramic factories across the country have announced price increases, many ceramic factories have "failed to increase prices."
In this round of price increases, due to fierce competition in the industry and huge sales pressure, some ceramic companies issued price increase notices, but did not dare to actually implement them; some ceramic companies increased prices for a period of time, but then adjusted their prices again soon. Return to the original price; some ceramic companies have only increased prices on some of their best-selling products, and some ceramic companies have increased prices and reduced prices through promotions...
Sudden cost pressures are difficult to transfer to the downstream and can only be borne by ceramic companies themselves. "Demolition of old and new construction" and "expanding single-line production capacity" are one of the most effective ways to reduce unit production costs.
It is worth noting that in the past few years, the number of ceramic companies and production lines nationwide has decreased significantly, but the national ceramic tile production capacity has not decreased. The reason is that kilns and other equipment have been rapidly upgraded and iterated in recent years, and the ceramic tile single line production capacity has been continuously refreshed. .
Data show that the average single-line production capacity of ceramic tiles nationwide increased from 14,700 square meters in 2017 to 16,300 square meters in 2020, an increase of 10.9%.
In just three years from 2017 to 2020, there were a net reduction of 211 ceramic factories and 504 production lines in the country, and the reduction reached 15% of the total number of ceramic factories and production lines in the country. If we compare the production capacity data at the peak in 2014, there was a net decrease of 297 ceramic factories and 861 production lines in the country in six years.
Although the ceramic industry is undergoing a massive reshuffle, the pressure on overcapacity of ceramic tiles has not been effectively alleviated.
Data show that 2014 was the peak of national ceramic tile production capacity, but if you look at it by category, it is a different "picture." Since 2014, the national ceramic tile production capacity has continued to decline, largely due to the sharp reduction in the production of exterior wall tiles. As local governments have successively issued "height limit orders" for exterior wall tiles, the output and demand for exterior wall tiles have decreased significantly. This quickly lowered the national ceramic tile annual production capacity.
Putting aside the category of exterior wall tiles, if we only count the production capacity of indoor decorative tiles (floor tiles + ceramic tiles, medium plates, large plates), the result is that ceramic tile production capacity is still in an expansion trend, especially in 2021, the national ceramic tile production capacity will once again welcome the Come strong rebound and growth.
The market economy is a "surplus economy". It is foreseeable that the price war in the ceramic industry will be more bloody in the future. The launch of new lines with large production capacity will inevitably squeeze out the living space of more old lines. A number of old production lines with backward production capacity, high energy consumption and high unit production costs will Lost in this round of "competition".
In 2020, there were 2,445 ceramic tile production lines in the country, with a total annual production capacity of 12.3 billion square meters. With this round of "equipment upgrades" and the increase in single-line production capacity, perhaps in the next few years, only 2,000 production lines can reach 123 Annual production capacity of 100 million square meters.
Assuming that the national average single-line ceramic tile production capacity can reach 19,000 square meters in the next two years, exterior wall tile production capacity continues to shrink, and the total annual ceramic tile production capacity maintains a scale of 12.3 billion square meters, only 2,088 production lines are needed. This means that another batch of ceramic companies and 357 production lines will be eliminated.
(Article reproduced from Ceramic Information)
